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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.