Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
